Demography

Course objectives

Learning goals The main learning goal is to learn the demographic techniques to study the dynamic characteristics of a population and to understand what is the role of a demographic variable – causes and effects – in the change of social and economic phenomena. The course provides skills for several fields of application, such as, for example, life insurance policies, social-security benefits, health-care and also financial planning. Knowledge and understanding Knowledge and understanding of main population trends and the dynamics of demographic phenomena are expected, together with adequate methodologies to learn about the importance of demographic dimension and related tecnnical practice. Applying knowledge and understanding At the end of the course the student will be able to build and analyse demographic indicators and instruments useful in the insurance sector, with particular reference to the construction of actual and future life tables and their use. The course provides all the tools, both theoretical and methodological, to make a population forecast and to read the results obtained correctly so that they can be used in the actuarial and financial fields. Making judgements Students will be able to evaluate the impact of the evolution of mortality, fertility and migration on the age structure of a population and, viceversa, be able to evaluate the influence that these structural changes will have in the mid and long term on the three components, mortality, fertility and migration. In particular, the course allows the students to choose the most suitable life tables for each specific field of application, especially the actuarial one. Communication skills Attending lessons and passing the final exam, the student acquires the demografic technical and scientific language , which is necessary to communicate results at work and generally speaking in the field of social security and assistance. Learning skills At the end of the course, students passing the exam will have learned the key role of the demographic dimension and will be able to apply the main quantitative tools to manage and analyse the actuarial eand financial processes. The competences acquired can be very useful to work in the field of social welfare plannning.

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FILOMENA RACIOPPI Lecturers' profile

Program - Frequency - Exams

Course program
1) Population dynamics (births, mortality, migrations) and measures of increase of a population. Demographic structures and ageing issue. The temporal evolution of demographic phenomena according to the age of a population: from the identification of the events in time to the calculus of the rates, to the study of the differences between abridged events, rates and probability. Lexis diagram. (about 24 hours) 2) The generational approach in demographic analysis: Longitudinal observation in demography. Construction of mortality tables in discrete and in continuum. The study of fertility in a generation. (about 8 hours) 3) The period approach in the study of demographic phenomena: construction of indicators which allow us to follow the mortality-rate trend. Relationship between rates and probability and the construction of mortality-rate tables in contemporary. The study of fertility in a fictitious cohort. Relationship between period and longitudinal fertility measures and their impact on the change of number of new born babies and, therefore, on the ageing of a population. The role of international migration on the dynamics of the Italian population and in particular on the change of fertility models and on structural variations. (about 14 hours) 4) Population forecasts: Provisional mortality rates and fertility models. The consideration to be attributed to migration. Future population growth. (about 2 hours)
Prerequisites
Basic concepts of mathematics, statistics and probability
Books
- Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin e Guillaume Wunsch: "Demografia. La dinamica delle popolazioni", published by Carocci, june 2001. - from Massimo Livi Bacci “Introduzione alla Demografia “ Chapter 12: Le previsioni demografiche, p. 311-333.
Teaching mode
Course is provided in traditional way in a normal situation. Remote lessons could be added in case of particular conditions, following indications of the governance. The course consists of theoretical lessons and, for some issues, of applications and exercises with real population data
Frequency
Students are not obliged to attend lessons. Attending lessons is warmly advised. If it's not possible students are invited to regularly contact teacher to talk about key topics
Exam mode
The final oral test (about 40 minutes) allows the evaluation of the acquired skills at theoretical knowledge of demographic phenomena, on one side, and practice of methods, on the other side
Bibliography
Preston S.H., Heuveline P., Guillot M. (2001) DEMOGRAPGHY - Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, Blacwell Publishing Livi Bacci M. (1999) INTRODUZIONE ALLA DEMOGRAFIA, terza edizione, Loescher editore
Lesson mode
Course is provided in traditional way in a normal situation. Remote lessons could be added in case of particular conditions, following indications of the governance. The course consists of theoretical lessons and, for some issues, of applications and exercises with real population data
  • Lesson code1018209
  • Academic year2024/2025
  • CourseActuarial and Financial Sciences
  • CurriculumScienze attuariali
  • Year1st year
  • Semester2nd semester
  • SSDSECS-S/04
  • CFU6
  • Subject areaStatistico, statistico applicato